Trailer Transcript

The world has lost the fight against climate change. Or at least that's how it might sometimes feel.

‘We face near-term human extinction as a result of chaos. A streak of violent weather latched on the Philippines with five typhoons barreling down on We are dangerously close to a number of catastrophic tipping points.’

Ten years ago, at a UN conference in Paris, the world agreed on a target for limiting climate change. You might have heard about it.

Our leaders agreed to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees. It was historic, a rare moment of unity, a moment where science, politics and the voices of the most vulnerable nations all came together. For the first time, there was a shared story. And so this number, 1.5, quickly became the basis for many stories about climate change. Stories that have a win-or-lose outcome.

‘If we do not change course, we risk missing the point where we can avoid runaway climate change. Humanity has long since run down the clock on climate change. It's one minute to midnight on that doomsday clock.’

And ever since, the world has been like a ship headed towards a storm. It must change course in order to avert disaster. And in the 10 years since the Paris conference, the course has shifted. Trillions has been invested in green technologies. Solar provides the cheapest electricity in history. And around the world, polling shows majorities demanding greater climate action. So the course is changing. But then, last year, something shocking happened. ‘

New figures show that last year was the hottest year since records began. Temperatures were 1.6 degrees higher than the pre-industrial average.’

2024 was the first full year in which the global temperature rise began breaching 1.5 degrees. Now, technically, this doesn't mean the goal's been lost. That happens when the temperature stays above 1.5°C over a period of decades. But dangerous emissions are still rising.

‘Drill, baby, drill.’

So now it's clear. The world is going over 1.5 degrees. In the climate jargon, that's called overshoot. The ship has entered the storm.

‘It's virtually impossible not to cross 1.5 degrees now.’

So now what? The world missed its key goal to limit climate change. So what happens next? That's the question I'm asking. Does it mean the world lost, that it's doomed? Or can something rapidly turn the ship around? I'm Laurie Laybourne, a climate researcher and policy advisor. And this is Overshoot, a new series

asking how the world got here and what's in store beyond 1.5 and how we can navigate out of this storm. Throughout the series, I'll meet the people exposing how governments and other powerful institutions have failed to plan for overshoot.

‘I think most people would be really shocked.’

And we'll uncover the huge misconceptions and the high-tech distractions that are slowing down our response.

‘I think it was Occidental Petroleum last year put out a press release claiming they had produced the world's first zero-carbon barrel of oil.’

And we'll hear the stories that could give the world a guide for navigating overshoot.

‘We almost faced extinction. was a moment in history that there were only 110 of us remaining and we navigated that.’

So join me, Laurie Leiborn, as I look beyond the headlines to understand how we got here and what it would take to chart a safer course through the storm. This is Overshoot.

Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. And for essays and bonus content, sign up at overshootpod.com or follow @OvershootPod on social media.